Edward Luttwak on Millennials, Feminism and the USA-China Confrontation

— Have global politics became more predictable due to artificial intelligence, machine learning and big data? How these technological advancements affect the behavior of states? 

For the time being, there are different companies around the world that are using AI. Governments are not using it, they are using animal intelligence. There is no artificial intelligence at the government level. It is still extremely primitive, there is no such thing as government use of AI.

— What is the influence of millennials and generation Z on the domestic politics of different states, given the election of Volodymyr Zelensky, Nikol Pashinyan, Justin Trudeau and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez?

It depends on the country. In China, Xi Jinping decides everything for everybody including what flavor of ice cream to eat and what shoes to wear. In places like the United States, new generations are responsible for a cultural revolution. One of the founders of the U.S., Mr. Thomas Jefferson, is no longer accepted because he conceived a baby with a black slave who was his mistress. George Washington is now under attack. So in the United States, the cultural revolution is attacking every single principal of American life. In other places, it does not work like this, so their influence depends. 

— How can we democratize Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and Youtube that make money on user data and can manipulate public opinion? 

You can confiscate those companies and take them away. And give them away to a country’s bureaucrats to run. After two years, maximum, these companies won’t have a penny.  They will be broken down. These are private companies, they are operated for profit by smart people. The moment you transfer them to someone else, like bureaucrats or non-governmental organizations they will not last 6 months. After six months no one will use them. 

— But what about us, who are giving our data?

I am personally very surprised that people spend even one minute a day on Facebook. But people do that. And all I can tell you is this  — these are private businesses that are working in very strange new ways.  They cannot be democratized. Because you cannot nationalize them. It doesn’t work: it is like the state nationalization of music or poetry. It doesn’t work. 

— Do feminism and the environmentalism claim the status of modern ideologies? How do they influence world politics and societies today?

Feminism brings back social transformation and a change in the balance of power. Feminists balance the power. For example, there’s a meeting here in Nur-Sultan and there’s only three women present. In America, this couldn’t happen, it wouldn’t be possible. If a meeting like this happenned, the women would stop the meeting, go out into the street and find the first ladeis they can, and bring them in. Feminism is a matter of power. Feminism is not for fun. This is how women become editors of a newspaper, head of a bank. This is a struggle. 

Environmentalism is a way of delegitimizing the whole economic structure. Why do you think a fifteen year old Swedish girl  is elevated to a world figure? This is just a way to attack the current industrial order. So this is politics by other means. But, I think this is a very temporary phase. And the next phase will be the confrontation between the United States and China.

The Americal goal is not to get this or that advantage on shoes or other consumer goods, it is to bring down the regime. The United States decided in 1980 that they had to bring the Soviet regime. And now they decided that they want to bring down the Chinese regime. And that’s what the story is about, the rest is just music. 

— How can Central Asian states survive and benefit from that?

Kazakhstan and its neighboring countries have benefited from globalization to a huge extent. If not for globalization, Kazakhstan would be trapped between China and Russia. Because of globalization, Kazakhstan has developed relations with more than 50 countries around the world, or even more. And so, they are being greatly helped by globalization. And they will be more helped by the emergence of a USA-China confrontation. Because Kazakhstan then becomes an important player. So, I don’t think that the Central Asian states are the grass beneath the feet of the elephants.